Conspiracy Theories are for Opportunists
What happens when the anti-establishment becomes the establishment?
It is often said that conspiracy theories are for losers. In the literature, this refers to the idea that their endorsers are often powerless, disenfranchised, and overlooked individuals seeking to restore a sense of personal agency. You may not be able to control your circumstances, but you can replace official explanations, which often feel impersonal and complex, with narratives that are easier to grasp and directly address your anxieties.
This functional approach appears repeatedly throughout conspiratorial movements. Whether it’s climate-change denial or anti-vaccine rhetoric, such theories have a way of offering a sense of belonging to those who feel left out from mainstream institutions. By transforming feelings of desolation into perceive insight, conspiracies provide feelings of validation about one’s lowly position in society.
But notice how well conspiracy theorists are doing right now. Trump has ascended to the presidency for the second time, despite endorsing and spreading self-serving conspiracy theories about rival politicians1, the media, and public health institutions. Elon Musk, whose primary use of his own platform seems to be spreading divisive misinformation234, is officially the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). RFK Jr., an anti-vaxxer, may soon be leading the Department of Health. As if that wasn’t bad enough, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, the COVID contrarian, is Trump’s pick to lead the National Institute of Health. It seems that all you have to do to gain Trump’s trust is to signal distrust in everything else. Conspiracy theories aren’t for losers; they are for opportunists.
This raises an interesting question. What happens when those who repeatedly cast doubt on our institutions become the leaders of those institutions? What happens when the anti-establishment becomes the establishment? Seriously, what are conspiracy theorists going to talk about for the next four years? Will anti-elite conspiracy theories die out completely?
While conspiracy theories are often endorsed by those who seek power, influence, and control, they can stick around long after those ends are reached. This is in large part due to the powerful incentive structure that emerges around conspiracy entrepreneurs, i.e., those who build an audience and career out of spreading alternative explanations for highly publicized events. If you grow in prominence by spreading outlandish and anti-establishment claims, you gain a peculiar audience who follows you specifically because of your seemingly noble curiosity and independence. Eventually, it becomes too costly to try to steer back to reality. Showing proper skepticism could cost you your livelihood. The show must go on.
Relatedly, conspiracy theorists often build communities around their beliefs. Adopting these beliefs is just part of the loyalty test that you must pass to join the cool kids. Consider, for example, the Flat Earth movement. On the surface5, it may seem patently absurd to claim that the Earth is flat when it is relatively easy to travel around the globe, or simply look at a satellite image of our planet. Yet it has attracted a dedicated community of believers who rally around rejecting the mainstream consensus. Flat-Earthers further reinforce each other’s skepticism through online forums and in-person conventions, forging a community built on shared doubt and a collective sense of identity.
Besides providing a profound sense of belonging and shared identity, these communities often seem to do irreparable damage to their members’ epistemological compass. A commonly-cited finding within the literature is that once you believe one conspiracy theory you are disproportionately likely to believe many others. It doesn’t take long before you are completely shielded from rational society and all the news you consume, the ideas you are exposed to, and the people you engage in political conversation with all share and reaffirm your beliefs.
It is this kind of information siloing that leads people to charge inside a pizza shop in search of abducted children, or storm the capital to overthrow a valid election outcome, or treat COVID symptoms with disinfectants. It is also a result of undermining expert advice, particularly when those experts work in fields that use up a considerable amount of government spending and without clear populist connections. By undermining authorities, you also undermine the justification for their spending. I imagine this is what Elon Musk’s new job as the head of the DOGE will turn into—“increase efficiency” by cutting employment and funding in areas of the government that don’t serve Trump’s immediate political aims.
Conspiracy thinking isn’t going anywhere. After all, it has only just recently proven its expediency as a political tool—it gives leaders like Trump a monopoly on truth. When you undermine those whose profession is to uncover and disseminate the truth, you are given more power to dictate it yourself.
Finally, the more prevalent conspiracy theories are, the easier it is to get away with actual conspiracy. When everyone is abusing their power, it seems like just another day when Trump gets convicted of a hush-money case, orchestrates a coup against the US government, or attempts to commercialize nihilism and grift as much as possible (some of the lavish merchandise he has been selling his fans include bibles, NFTs, and gold coins).
This level of opportunism is bound to erode trust—even for Trump supporters. More and more reasonable people are going to be on the lookout for real conspiracies, and they will make a lot of false-positive errors. When the world becomes ridiculous, ridiculous claims begin to seem plausible. There are signs of this already. Even before Trump was elected, leftists had begun questioning the legitimacy of his assassination attempt. Was this just a grand display orchestrated by Trump himself to garner sympathy and political support? Similar claims are made by the right claiming that Biden ordered the attack. Before recently, normal people would dismiss these ideas as absurd. Now, many view it as worth considering. This is a good sign that our information landscape has become littered with distrust.
Though conspiracy theories aren’t going anywhere—and they might even become more prevalent over the next four years —I do hold some guarded optimism for after Trump’s final term. Personality cults often wither without their figurehead—and I think Trump is a once-in-a-lifetime showman. MAGA just won’t feel the same without the guy.6
There is a point during every vacation when you start to miss home. Maybe MAGA is the right’s vacation from sane political discourse. The Democrats certainly pivoted closer to the center this last election. Perhaps we will see the same thing for the Republicans in 2028. I can only hope, but I also think things could get uglier before they get better.
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Bluesky: @ryan-bruno.bsky.social
such as the Obama Birtherism conspiracy theory, Biden’s Ukraine connections, Election fraud by the democrats, and so on. These aren’t hard to find.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/elon-musk-great-replacement-conspiracy-theory-1234941337/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-rally-shooting-misinformation-conspiracy-theories/
https://web.archive.org/web/20221101151349/https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/elon-musk-new-owner-twitter-tweets-unfounded-conspiracy-theory-paul-pe-rcna54717
pun unintended.
But who knows. Maybe Tucker Carlson will raise to the challenge.